Played Out, But Still Ridin': 10 Year Events Impacting A K-Shaped Pattern In Moving & Real Estate

The last decade turned the U.S. housing and moving markets upside down.

Scandals, tax changes, a pandemic bust, a pandemic boom, sky-high rates, commission shake-ups, and military moving disasters created chaos—but in heavily regulated markets (like real estate and moving), patterns emerged and systematic weaknesses exposed. Recognizing this may help you avoid/minimize risk and open doors to more opportunity. 

When economist speak of patterns, we've been hearing a lot how our economy and market is currently in a K-Shape. 

The term visualizes the letter K. One line heads upward (representing growth), while the other slopes downward (representing decline). 

Looking back, the K-Shape pattern first appeared around the pandemic (reference economist Peter Atwater), while JP Morgan and others referenced similar ideas at that time. By 2025-2026, economist and analysts widely described the U.S. economy as still K-Shaped, with roots tracing back to significant volatility- over the past 5-10 years.

Here are a few key events we've seen in the past 10 years (pre-post pandemic) that have either contributed to the K-Shaped economy we see today, and/or have significantly created an imbalance/slow down towards an even growth for all:

The Turbulent Timeline (Quick Hits)

• 2016: Bank scandal → trust erosion, mortgage dips.

• 2017–18: Tax law → fed/state tax law impact micro/macro 

• 2020–21: COVID chaos → low rates fueled frenzy, urban exodus.

• 2022–23: Rate spikes to 7%+ → sales crash, "lock-in" paralysis.

• 2023–24: NAR settlement → commission shakeup slows deals.

• 2025: TRANSCOM fiasco → military relocations derailed, sunset tax deductions

Net result?

With flux in interest rates and persistent housing shortages, the housing market showed clear K-shaped dynamics, with asset owners and high-end/luxury segments booming while first-time buyers, renters, and mid-tier properties faced headwinds.

The market decided that they were no longer interested in tax deductions for moving. When the "quarantine" ends, buyers and sellers still make the move and take a leap of faith towards new beginnings. Evidence in can be found in net migration patterns.

If we compare net migration trends between July 2020-July 2024 we'll discover states with fewer regulatory factors, lower-cost of living and better opportunities saw growth (K Shape going upward), while states raising taxes and increasing other regulatory factors saw net loss. 

We also saw an outlier in California where insurance underwriters refuse coverage for homeowners. This not only impacted homeowners who needed to file a claim for wildfires. If there's no home insurance available, there's no home sale, leaving buyers stuck. 

What Are Examples Of Past? 

Post-2008 financial crisis recovery, we saw asset markets and high-income/tech sectors rebound quickly, while housing, construction, and low-to-middle income jobs lagged for years, with inequality widening further.

Many pointed to low rates inflated assets for owners, loose monetary policy, explosion of subprime and risky mortgages, failures in regulation, and imbalances from global outsourcing work to other countries.

It was (partially) corrected by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which was the most comprehensive overhaul of financial regulation since the Great Depression, along with extended unemployment benefits, stimulus packages and eventual wage growth in tight labor markets by mid-2010's, however, structural issues have lingered into the 2020's.

What's Next?

At least for our market (real estate & moving), with rates taking a dip, the summer of 2026 could see larger volumes than that of the previous 2-3 years. Homeowners in booming states can capitalize on equity, while homeowners in stuck states may need to rent out properties or wait for rates to ease further. Data from FHFA, Census, Realtor.Com and United Van Lines support the ongoing trends

While events are still unfolding in 2026 and there are ongoing efforts to control inflation and labor markets (at the federal level), there are practical steps individual consumers and service providers are being encouraged to consider.

Consumers Looking To Buy, Sell, Move

• Shop credit unions or online lenders for better transparency and rates.

• Consider moving to state that offers low cost of living states & big opportunity (Texas, Arkansas)

• If stuck in a low-rate mortgage, look into assumable loans or seller-paid rate buydowns.

• Negotiate agent fees—aim for 2–3% total or use flat-fee services (Houzeo, Redfin).

• Consider DITY, but vet national carriers so you don't end up having same problem as TRANSCOM

• Build a "move emergency fund" — rates could ease in late 2026

Service Providers Looking For Ways to Win

• Focus on trust: Use clear communication and tech

• Specialize—offer military PCS help, Sun Belt relocation packages, or rate-buydown expertise.

• Adapt to NAR rules: Provide value-based services and transparent pricing.

• Movers offer financing as an option

• Use data tools to spot trends and host free "2026 Housing Update" webinars.

• Create value added services, such as consulting or channel partners who are aligned with your vision

Final Notes:

The market exposed systemic weaknesses, but smart adaptation wins.

The K-Shape dynamic does not rule out fresh competition or heighten risk ahead. Lower barriers in some markets could invite new entrants- innovative builders & disruptors (as we saw during the housing crisis)- intensifying rivalry. At the same time, persistent volatility, policy uncertainty and an overall reluctance for change in stressed markets could tempt bad actors- underscoring the need for vigilance in an uneven recovery.

In short, adaptive strategies still separate thrivers from strugglers. Stay informed, negotiate everything, plan ahead, look for & find more ways to create value in the year(s) ahead.

If you're unsure, feel free to reach out and let's talk it out together. I've moved 5 times during the past 10 years!